Healthy ageing is vital to sustainable development K. Srinath Reddy and Manu Raj Mathur One of the defining features of the 21st century will be the large number of persons described as ‘elderly’ (over 60 years) and ‘very elderly’ (over 80 years) who will be living across the world. It is estimated that the number of elderly persons presently alive exceeds the cumulative number of all elderly persons throughout preceding human history. Between 1950 and 2050 the world population will have increased three-fold, but the population of elderly people will have risen nine-fold and that of the very elderly 28-fold. Such has been the dramatic rise in longevity over the last century. Falling age-standardised mortality rates are increasing the life expectancy and, along with declining fertility rates, are increasing the proportion of the aged in most countries (Mathers et al., 2015). While the phenomenon of ageing was previously most evident in wealthy countries, low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) are experiencing it at a faster pace than the high-income countries did in the 20th century (UNDESA, 2012). In China, the population of the elderly presently constitutes 15.2 per cent of the population, totalling 210 million. In India, which has a much younger population, there are more than 90 million elderly people. By 2050, two billion people will be aged over 60, and 80 per cent of older people will live in LMICs. Chile, China and Iran will have a greater proportion of older people than the USA. By 2050, 400 million people will be over 80 years globally – 100 million in China alone. All societies need, therefore, to design a framework of inclusive and sustainable development to productively and equitably accommodate this new demographic reality in the economy and ethos of the 21st century. In this century, both physiological and economic realities are directing us to re-examine the antiquated definitions of ‘ageing’ and ‘old-age dependency ratios’ (OADR), and explore the concept of ‘prospective life expectancy’ as the basis for developing a dynamic definition of ageing (Basten, 2013). We no longer see ageing as a cataclysmic change that occurs on a pre-determined calendar date and abruptly guillotines productivity at an arbitrary age of 60 or 65 years (dates set in the labour market economies a century ago). Instead, we view it as a multi-dimensional construct that integrates lengthening life with extended functionality. As 70 Most people hope to age gracefully, retain their autonomy and not become a burden to family members 14 Commonwealth Health Partnerships 2015 Volt Collection / Shutterstock.com
Commonwealth Health Partnerships 2015
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